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🇸🇦 F1 2022 R2: When do you make the decision?

Picture the scene, you are pumped for the 2022 season, only to find your teammate finishing ahead of you in the first race. Bounce back, regroup and attack race two, only to find your teammate ahead of you again. 

When two podiums don't feel like two podiums. (c) Carlos Sainz on Twitter 

Despite that, in those two races, you finish second and third, extending your podium streak, and you’ve been one of the most consistent drivers in the modern era of Formula 1, taking points finish after points finish - scoring 17 consecutive points finishes (and counting) since Styria 2021. But somehow, it isn’t enough to overhaul your teammate. 

If you’re Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc, Ferrari may have a decision to make that is slightly more difficult than other teams might have to consider.

Sainz is 12 points behind Leclerc in the overall standings, but there are at least 20 races still to go, so is it too early for Ferrari to say they’ll put their eggs into Leclerc’s basket as the number one driver and prevent the Spanish driver taking his first career race win if his teammate is in a position to do so?

 There are at least three clues we can look at to see why Ferrari might want to make this decision and commit to one driver over the other. Firstly, a look at Sainz’s comments after the first race of the season: 

"As a Ferrari driver it’s been my most difficult weekend and it just shows that I need to put my head down, understand this car, understand where is Charles making the difference with his driving.

"I need to improve if I want to fight for a win and I will put my head down and try to do some steps coming into Jeddah. Can I improve it from one weekend to another? I think I can improve it." Sainz, speaking to Reuters after Bahrain

Those don’t seem like the words of a driver who matched his best-ever finish in Formula 1 with a third silver medal. With Ferrari having a car that can challenge for race wins, Sainz knows he has to break his duck and push forward, despite already being great on the grid. He also managed to finish ahead of Leclerc in 2021 overall, largely through taking advantage of the Monegasque not finishing a couple of races, showing that he was able to take charge as a number one driver. Even if Leclerc finished ahead of him more times over the course of 2021, he never managed to get more than five places ahead of him.

With the new cars, perhaps Leclerc has taken a step forward - or at least a bigger step forward than Sainz has, and if Ferrari agree, they might commit to the younger driver this year. Leclerc has taken his second podium this season in two races - that’s more podium finishes than he had last season, and he has shown some exceptional intelligence against his rivals along the way to leading the Drivers’ Championship after this double header. 

   
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We can also look elsewhere on the grid for an idea of what happens when you don’t necessarily commit to a number one. Early on, Alpine drifted around in sixth and seventh, and perhaps could look down the road and think about chasing down George Russell, who drove a brilliant but lonely race for Mercedes in fifth. 

Instead, both Alpines decided to fight each other, DRS-ing each other down the main straight for a few laps, with the team content for them to race each other. Doing so brought Valtteri Bottas and Kevin Magnussen into play for those positions, with Alpine eventually losing out as Fernando Alonso’s car overheated, although Esteban Ocon grabbed some useful points. 

But when it goes wrong, it really goes wrong. When drivers hit each other, it’s bad, when teammates take each other out of the race, it’s a full enquiry-creating disaster that can destory a team’s morale.

With Ferrari getting better and better, a collision could end up destroying the team’s season and alienate the relationship drivers have with each other. 

The third reason for Ferrari to make the decision sooner rather than later is a bit simpler. Money. Ferrari now hold a 40–point lead in the Constructors’ Championship after Red Bull crashed out of the first race, and while Mercedes benefitted, but couldn’t get a late-stopping Hamilton further up the order in Jeddah. 

Ferrari are likely to hold that top spot until at least Imola in race four, and probably beyond that too. An F1 team’s prize money isn’t determined by where one of their drivers finishes, but rather in the team’s championship.  

Due to an historic agreement, this is less of an issue for Ferrari as they’re one of the teams that gets a bit more money, but it’s still worth reducing the risk as they chase down a first Constructors’ crown since Massa and Raikkonen all the way back in 2008. 

Formula 1 moves onto Australia after a week off, and potentially an unfamiliar situation for recent fans in some timezones. A 6am race start time in the UK is probably just about ok, but getting up at 4am for a practice session around a remodelled Albert Park might be a bit much, even if the racing is hotting up. 

It’s one-all between Red Bull and Ferrari, and despite the unpredictably and the two-week gap, it doesn’t yet look like any other teams will be joining the fight. Whoever came up with double-header at the start of the season is a great idea, and the season has truly begun. 

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