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🇺🇸 Formula 1 2021: Round 17 - The slow decline of three killer initials

 

(c) Red Bull Racing on Twitter


"To finish first, first you have to finish."

This quote is attributed to several different people, but it holds as true in old-school F1 as it is in 2021. It doesn’t matter how quick you are if you’re pitching it into the wall before the race has finished. What we’ve seen this season is that a lack of reliability doesn’t really seem to be a general issue in modern-day Formula 1. As this cycle of cars continues to evolve, we’re seeing - especially among the top runners - fewer retirements. 

That’s not to say there aren't issues. Valtteri Bottas started the race from ninth after taking yet another internal combustion engine as Mercedes aim to diagnose what the issues might be. As engine suppliers, this issue appears to be affecting their customers too, with George Russell and Sebastian Vettel also taking new parts. And this all without even considering Lewis Hamilton, who may have to take a new engine in Mexico, and the impact a single DNF is likely to have, something he knows only too well.

Come with me on a journey to the What If machine.

In 2016, Hamilton lost out to Nico Rosberg in the Championship, with both drivers in the form of their lives. That year, they took each other out in Spain, but the only other DNF Mercedes suffered was in Malaysia (the famous Alonso 35-grid place penalty race), where Rosberg finished third and Hamilton blew out his engine. The Brit went on a tear at the end of the season, winning four of the last five races, but it wasn’t quite enough as the German took his first and only world title by five points - or to put it another way - if Hamilton had won in Sepang, instead of retiring from the front, he would have won that world title too. 

I’ve taken a look at the DNF’s suffered by the top-six drivers from 2014 on the graph below, with team colours attached. In this, and the next graph, there are a few limitations to the data. I haven’t gone through and looked at the reasons why cars didn’t make it to the end, so things like crashes aren’t considered as unique, and I’ve also included disqualifications as a DNF.

There are two seasons when Daniel Ricciardo must have wondered which of his engineers he’d annoyed, after zero non-finishes in 2016, he had 14 non-finishes in 2017 and 2018, with eight of those coming in his last season at Red Bull. The fact he was still in the top six in both years shows how good he was in that car, not finishing lower than sixth when he did cross the line.

On the other side of the mark, Lewis Hamilton has had fantastic reliability. In his title-winning years in 2017, 2019 and 2020, Hamilton finished every race. In fact, to emphasise how good his reliability has been, his race-ending crash with Max Verstappen in Italy this year was his first non-finish since Austria 2018. In 282 starts, he’s only failed to finish 24 times and been DQ’ed once. That’s amazing in itself, with modern F1 cars being beautiful, brittle machines, as evidenced before qualifying started in Austin. 

Red Bull were seen trying to dry the glue they’d applied to Max Verstappen’s rear wing with a couple of heat guns after they’d discovered a crack in the bodywork. If the Dutchman wins his first F1 world title, he might have a couple of super-powered hairdryers to thank.

The rest of the grid outside the top six are also finishing races more often. Grid sizes were sometimes bigger than 20 cars, and the number of races vary, so this graph is an imprecise science, but it collates the total DNFs across the whole grid, minus the non-top six drivers. This season, perhaps due to the limited changes teams could make, they’ve seemingly really got a handle on how the cars work and we’re seeing fewer retirements as a result.

And those fewer retirements means that teams can’t rely on a safety car as much as maybe they used to. The Austin race was a strategic battle with Red Bull pitting their drivers early and Mercedes deliberately delaying their response, relying on their team to chase their rivals down. 

While it eventually half-worked for Valtteri Bottas who was frustrated behind the brilliant Ferrari vs McLaren battle and passing Sainz, Hamilton staying out for eight laps later than Verstappen was almost a perfect call. Almost. The Dutchman extended his championship lead in a thrilling finish in front of a capacity crowd. Around 400,000 people attended COTA over the weekend, and it showed exactly why it should be considered a major race.

F1 moves onto a triple-header and one that must have its logistics teams losing sleep as it starts in Mexico (traditionally a Red Bull Race), before moving to Brazil (with sprint qualifying) and then to Qatar (a brand new race). The previous triple, which ran through Belgium, Netherlands and Italy doesn’t really compare, because of distance and the washout in Spa, so teams are going to be tested to their limits. If a car suffers a major crash or problem in Mexico City or Interlagos, those teams probably can’t freight the offending part back, fix it and send it to the next race in time. The repairs are going to have to be done in pit garages, putting them completely out of their comfort zone. 

It might lead to more mechanical failures and mistakes, especially with the mental and physical demands on the teams.

But, the last word should go to Red Bull. COTA is traditionally a Mercedes circuit, with every race in Austin bar two going the way of the Silver Arrows. The last few laps, with low fuel and bad tyres might go down as the defining image of the season.

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