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🇨🇦 F1'22 R9: Views from the bottom six

If you're reading this, it's already too late (for Nicholas Latifi) (possibly). Will this be the last Drake reference in this post? Maybe.

Two Canadian drivers with very different futures (c) Aston Martin on Twitter

Formula 1 returned to Montreal for the first time since 2019, with two drivers on their home grid, and both of them facing very different futures. One Canadian has possibly the seat with the most pressure, and the other one is somewhat safe, but both drivers have been unable to significantly bring themselves into the points consistently so far this season. 

Let’s start with Lance Stroll, the Aston Martin driver whose points total has fallen every year since 2020. The thing is, despite that stat, and his inability to get the best out of his car, his father owns the team. In some sort of context, my father bought me a Mega Drive when I was younger, Lawrence Stroll bought his son a Formula 1 drive that he is in near complete control of. 

And that seems to reflect itself in Aston Martin’s sponsors too. On TV, one of their IT partners uses Sebastian Vettel on their advert. The four-time World Champion appeared on BBC’s political analysis show Question Time and spoke eloquently, but the team’s other driver doesn’t seem to have the same profile. This is understandable - only five people have at least four titles, after all - but he doesn’t seem to have any sort of celebrity or commercial profile at all outside of racing.

It’s clear he is regressing, and regressing more than Vettel. Johnny Herbert believes Stroll Sr would replace his son if he had to, but I am not so sure. The test is whether if Stroll was to be dumped, would he find his way to another F1 seat? On merit, probably not, but a team might be tempted if a financial package was offered along with the driver. It’s not like he’s terrible, after all. 

He showed some of that potential at his home race by managing his tyres while being pursued by three cars, running for 48 laps on the same set of hards, being able to frustrate the team’s rivals. It was horrendous luck to pit just as Yuki Tsunoda crashed out, bringing out the safety car, and undid most of his hard work up to that point. But he recovered well and used his fresher tyres to move up the order and claim his third point of the season - with his third 10th place of 2022 - and crucially, move his team ahead of Haas for eighth place in the teams’ championship. This is a far cry from where they were in Australia, when they had a weekend so bad, any points at all seemed to be a long way off.

So at least Stroll is fighting for some form of relevance, which brings us to Nicholas Latifi. It was fashionable last season to mock Haas’ Russian driver by saying he was 21st in a 20-car championship. Well, that’s the fate that Latifi has, with Aston Martin stand-in Nico Hulkenberg finishing in a higher position in the two races the German featured in at the start of the season. 

Losing the Haas driver has exposed Latifi as Formula 1’s floor, as he wasn’t the worst last season, and he even grabbed his first points, but in 2022, he is one of two drivers (Mick Schumacher) to be without points after nine races, and has finished no higher than 14th so far this season. 

  
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Every race he’s in, the rumours get louder and louder that he will be replaced, either at the end of the season or even before that. Names like Nyck de Vries and Oscar Piastri are being touted as in-season replacements for Latifi, who ended Montreal in 16th. 

He’s taken seven points in 48 races, and racing in his home country for the first time in his open-wheel career feels like the end of season finale for him. Given his current ratings and form, it looks like he’s in danger of suffering a midseason replacement. 

Formula 2 champion Oscar Piastri would be an intriguing audition, with Alonso and Esteban Ocon ahead of him, and directly racing against other seats up on the hypothetical block.

There are two elements of mitigation that might help Latifi’s case. One is that the Williams isn’t a good car compared to its rivals. We know this because Alex Albon only has three points more than Latifi, and although he’s maybe 2-3 places better a race, it’s not often enough to get into the top 10. Would Alpine want to risk Piastri’s morale by throwing him into a bad situation and watching him flounder, even if it does give him half a season of experience? 

The other is that Latifi - through his father - does bring some funding to the team, with his father’s company emblazoned across the rear wing. That deal in an uncertain financial environment could be enough to keep Latifi in the game this season.

Formula 1 heads to Silverstone for the next race, with unpredictable… well, everything. F2 and F3 also rejoin the party as teams start to think about their 2023 lineups. Every time a driver gets in the car, they are auditioning for the future while trying to maximise their present. For most drivers, it doesn’t always work out. Sometimes though, it’s not how well you do overall, but there can be political or financial reasons to keep you on a team. Stroll will be ok, but it looks like the end of the road is approaching for Latifi.

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