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| The man who has won everything (c) Mercedes-AMG |
Picture the scene, Sir Lewis Hamilton, after being denied a record-breaking eighth Formula 1 Drivers’ title on the last lap of the last race, suddenly decides it’s time for a completely clean break. There isn’t a racing seat he couldn’t fill and every series across the world is willing to drive a truck full of money to his front door if they could attract one of the world’s truly great athletes - let alone a great F1 driver - to their shop floor.
It’s an unlikely scenario, and Formula 1 would be reeling, but time doesn’t stop. Mercedes would need a second driver as they attempt to maintain their streak of eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships. One driver is secured, with George Russell signed from Williams after catching the eye of the F1 and wider sporting world with his performances, including his work experience in Sakhir, standing in for a COVID-affected Hamilton.
This also shows the importance of a good driver academy. Mercedes have only Frederik Vesti waiting in the wings, and it would be far too soon to push him up. Even next year, if Vesti was to make it to F1, the odds are Mercedes would want him to serve an apprenticeship at one of the teams with the same power unit.
This completely hypothetical and not at all original look through the what-if machine has narrowed the fight for one of the sport’s most-coveted seats down to maybe eight candidates, starting with the most obvious.
CONNECTIONS
Valtteri Bottas would be the obvious shout. Hamilton’s teammate has been shunted aside for Russell, but has strong institutional knowledge of Mercedes and also what it’s like to lead and win races. One reason I think Hamilton loved him so much is because the Finn never really challenged him, evolving from a driver capable of taking points and the odd podium to a driver who was always a threat to win races, but never one to win championships. Essentially the perfect rear gunner if you’re Mercedes.
So the question would become whether the man who was trusted to mop up also be handed the keys to the shop? Especially when on the other side is the new shiny possible future world champion? And oh yeah, the general impression is you don’t like each other much after sharing a high-speed crash in Imola. While Bottas would be the clear continuity play, would his relationship with Russell be a negative for Mercedes?
The other connection is Esteban Ocon. The French Alpine driver is a race winner and has finished in the points around 65% since his apprenticeship with Manor. Ocon also has experience in the Mercedes, being the team’s test driver in 2019, when he was on the wrong end of Formula 1’s annual game of musical chairs. And Ocon moving to Mercedes would also solve the big issue of Formula 3 and Formula 2 champion Oscar Piastri not having a race seat in 2022. Alpine’s test driver would get an upgrade, racing alongside Fernando Alonso and being a dangerous midfield wildcard.
Is Ocon race-tested enough to be given an elite seat? Other than Bottas and maybe one more name on this list, there probably isn’t anyone else realistic who is. Ocon also solidifies Toto Wolff’s grasp on the team, with the French driver being managed by him.
“Esteban, it's a little bit of a weird situation, because he's been a Mercedes junior for a long time, and he's an Alpine works driver now and that's fact, I think that the situation is good for him there, he's growing, he's putting in the performances… he's French!" Toto Wolff, speaking to F1.com
Ocon and Russell would be an exciting pairing at the front of the grid, and of all of these candidates, would make the most sense. But Mercedes also have a couple of excellent drivers in their Formula E program, and either of them could suddenly get the call.
CURIOSITY
Former Formula 2 and reigning Formula E champion Nyck de Vries was unlucky not to get an F1 seat this year, with Alex Albon taking the Williams gig vacated by Russell.
At 26, de Vries is a good age, has championship pedigree and came out on top in the lottery that Formula E can sometimes be in just his second season. There’s also the pure pettiness of having a Dutch driver in your ranks, but Mercedes already know this.
As for the other side of the Mercedes Formula E garage, Stoffel Vandoorne already has F1 experience, living through the dark days of McLaren and being content to pick up a handful of points each season. While his F1 days were a challenge, he finished second in Merc’s first full Formula E campaign and he’s shown his pace in the past.
There is also the awkwardness of Vandoorne flying to Bahrain, only to not be picked over Russell when Hamilton was out, something that perhaps put a bit of a chip on the Belgian’s shoulder.
However, while both drivers - especially de Vries - are closer than most to an F1 drive, the replacement for Hamilton is probably already on the F1 grid. Maybe it’s a driver who had a completely different career path before a possible swerve.
CHAOS
Haas have been living at the back of the grid in 2021, but Mick Schumacher was a genuine bright spot for the team in parts. It seems like the son of great Michael Schumacher is destined to represent Ferrari red at some point, but what if Mercedes could lure Mick to the team where his father finished his storied career?
The older Schumacher came back during Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull’s years of dominance, racing with Mercedes for three years, picking up one podium at Valencia 2012. He was involved in a spectacular crash at Singapore, after which, he never challenged the top 10 and caused Mercedes to look for a new driver, which turned out to be Lewis Hamilton. There is the poetic element of Schumacher replacing Hamilton after Hamilton replaced Schumacher.
The other element of this is Carlos Sainz. Not as a prospect to take Hamilton’s seat, but how good he’s been at Ferrari in his first season. It feels harsh to call him a journeyman, but Ferrari is now his fourth team and maybe one where he’s finally home, despite possibly being hired as a capable seat-warmer while Schumacher was getting ready. Sainz’s form has made it clear he’s more than that as he was the only driver to finish in every race this season. He narrowly out-pointed Charles Leclerc on his way to fifth in the Championship. While Schumacher in Ferrari red makes sense, Sainz has maybe forced a rethink of their plans.
Earlier, we looked at the pettiness value of having a Dutch world champion at Mercedes. What if they took a driver who had been at Red Bull big school? It didn’t really work out for Pierre Gasly at Red Bull, with Alex Albon replacing him after a dozen races.
However, Gasly bounced back, becoming a valuable team leader for Alpha Tauri, even picking up a race win, being the overwhelmed but calming voice in the chaos at Monza in 2020. Consistently quick, no-one gained a greater percentage of their team’s points in 2021 than Gasly and that sort of leading performance could have Mercedes thinking they could build a team around Gasly and Russell for many years to come.
The bonus of having all that knowledge of the Red Bull system can’t hurt either.
CONFUSION
If Frederik Vesti would be the long-term option for Mercedes, then the wildcard of Romain Grosjean could be a good short-term ploy. Newer fans of F1 might think the guy who was running at the back with Haas suddenly getting the spotlight might be weird, but he has been there before, taking 10 podiums with Lotus, mostly all in the previous era of F1.
But as a one or two year option, Grosjean has experience and could be to Russell what Perez is to Verstappen. That is the older driver giving advice and mentoring the younger driver as he competes for the title. Albert handling Bruce Wayne’s world while Batman fights off the Joker, essentially.
Grosjean has unfinished business with Formula 1, ending as it did with the Frenchman climbing out of a fiery wreck in Bahrain. But the other wildcard also has unfinished business, with 170+ races and no podium, despite clearly having the talent and machinery to get there on several occasions during his career.
No one has ever questioned Nico Hulkenberg’s talent, but for all his consistency, he must be cursing his luck at points of his career.
Dumped by a French team for Frenchman Ocon in 2020, the Danish driver showed his versatility and skill, trading his German media microphone at short notice and finishing in the points both times for Racing Point, putting him in the Mercedes would be the best chance of getting his first podium after 179 starts in F1.
Both he and Grosjean would be the most unlikely options, but have lots of experience and could step into a team that hasn’t hired a rookie for as long as it’s been Mercedes.
Ultimately, the whole exercise is redundant, as the seven-time champion chases down the record… right, right?
