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❓ 6 F1 what-ifs away from 2021's title fight

If you think it takes a lot to make a Formula 1 season, imagine the stuff that doesn’t happen. 

(c) ESPN Asia

Apologies for going all part-time philosopher here, but in a sport with 20 cars and 20 drivers on the grid, there is a lot of “what if” to think about in the 2021 season. This will also be split into two parts. The first will focus on drivers that weren’t competing for the title (although obviously there are knock-on effects) while the second will look at the Max Verstappen vs Lewis Hamilton title fight. Let’s begin, then, with a track where it is near-impossible to pass.

What if Charles Leclerc had started in Monaco from pole? 

Back in the earlier rounds of the season, the Monegasque driver managed to qualify on pole position in his home race before binning it in the wall on his second flying lap, forcing a red flag that ended the session. Unfortunately for him, it meant that he was unable to start due to a driveshaft failure.

The knock-on effect? Verstappen led from lights to flag as he took his first 2021 championship lead. Red Bull did the same as Valtteri Bottas suffered an infinite pitstop and Hamilton couldn’t improve from seventh on the grid. A Ferrari win would have really shaken things up at this part of the season, especially with Leclerc going on to pole at the next race in Baku. There have only been three DNS’s this year, one being for Yuki Tsunoda at a disastrous Italian GP for Alpha Tauri and Nikita Mazepin's positive COVID-19 test in Abu Dhabi.

I wrote about how refreshing a three-team battle at the front of the grid could be after seeing Leclerc take pole.

What if Alpha Tauri hadn’t had a disaster race in Monza? 

In 2020, Pierre Gasly emerged from a chaotic race to win his first F1 race - and in an Alpha Tauri no less. While Red Bull’s sister team isn’t expected to win races, Gasly in particular has had a spectacular 2021 - especially in qualifying. 

Monza was one of three weekends to try the new sprint qualifying format, with a 100km race to set the grid for the Grand Prix. At Silverstone, he was 12th and took no points. At the third sprint in Brazil, he finished eighth in the sprint and ultimately took a few points in seventh as the fight with Alpine intensified, but in Italy, the French driver had a disaster. 

Coming into the event with three consecutive points’ finishes, Gasly made contact with Daniel Ricciardo in the opening lap of the sprint, losing his front wing. He told F1 “We know it’s going to be a tough race but at the end of the day we need to find a way to recover and hopefully score points tomorrow.” but a damaged suspension put him out within five laps. 

It was a few laps more than his team mate. Tsunoda did not start the race. Alpine only got five points during that weekend, but it was the middle of a three-race run of zero points for Alpha, with Alpine gaining 13 points on them in the Netherlands, Monza and Russia. 

I wrote about the battle for fifth place after Brazil. 

What if fuel could be extracted from Sebastian Vettel’s Aston Martin in Hungary? 

While the spotlight was on Alpine’s victory at the Hungaroring, the four-time world champion drove brilliantly, taking his second podium of the season and banking 18 points. Until the small matter of getting a fuel sample reared its head. 

Despite fuel being in his car, Aston Martin were unable to get it, which meant a disqualification. The knock-on effects here are many, but largely understated. Add the 18 points back, and the lead against Stroll gets a bit more pronounced. 

The other knock-on involves the title fight, with Hamilton gaining three extra points after his brilliant recovery drive to take third (promoted to second), while Verstappen gains an extra point after ultimately finishing in ninth, driving the vast majority of the race without one side of his bargeboards, a feat not many drivers would have achieved. That disqualification benefitted Hamilton by an extra two points.


I wrote about Aston Martin, and while their 2021 isn’t what they would have hoped, there are several long-term reasons for optimism. 

What if Valtteri Bottas had taken fastest lap in Zandvoort? 

The Finnish driver is moving to Alfa Romeo and has the security of a long-term contract for the first time in several years. His form has improved since the announcement in September, winning the sprints in Monza and Interlagos, logging his first win of the season and taking 95 points from Zandvoort to Qatar.

It was close to 96 too, with a change of tyres and a fastest lap late in the Netherlands, it took some persuading from his mechanics to back down… and yet he got it anyway.





Lewis Hamilton changed his tyres and blasted around the Dutch circuit to take back that point as Verstappen won his home race, but I remember a wry laugh while I was watching it live - a very public way of serving his notice, Bottas could have really made a statement had he not eased off in the final sector, and potentially taken a point from Hamilton in a fight where every one counts. 

I wrote about the Fastest lap point and how it has changed late-race strategies after the Portimao race.

What if George Russell had taken pole in Belgium? 

Mr Saturday loves a qualifying session and it’s clear that he will be expected to contribute immediately at Mercedes. But that’s not to say he hasn’t shown his ability in his Williams. With the rain continuing to pour down at Spa, and Lando Norris taken to hospital after a big smash, Russell - on a used set of intermediates - split Hamilton and Verstappen.

Unfortunately Sunday never happened, with torrential rain preventing anything resembling a race and a couple of safety car laps determining the final result. It meant Williams took their first podium since Azerbaijan 2017 and even if was worth half-points, was a massive feel good moment for the team. Half points were given to the top 10, so the knock-on effect here is on the Drivers’ Championship, favouring Verstappen by five points over Hamilton, it would have been 3.5 had Russell’s heroics not put him ahead of his next team mate. 

I wrote about the conditions at the Belgian race at the time. 

What if Lando Norris had pit in for intermediate tyres in Russia? 

We’ve had more winners in 2021 than any other in the hybrid era, but there’s a nagging feeling that there should have been one more. After being second in a McLaren 1-2 in Italy, they could have made it two wins in a row with Norris storming out in front in Sochi. 

And then, with a handful of laps left, the rain came.

Norris had a high-speed heartbreak through team radio as they discussed whether to get around a wet track on dry tyres or whether he should give up some time for inters. He chose the former, the team went with him and a maiden win became a seventh place, with Hamilton taking his 100th F1 win - a fantastic achievement whatever the circumstances. 

But spare a thought for Norris, who had driven a perfect weekend and was a few miles away from the chequered flag. It wasn’t his first near miss either, with track limits preventing him from starting on the front row in Imola - a race he finished third in. 

“It’s not just something people say, it definitely is true [that tough experiences make you stronger]. You do learn probably more from the hard moments. You always learn things. Even if you win a race, you can learn things.” Norris, speaking after Russia.

Norris will go on to win races, perhaps with his current team, but the knock-on here is that Hamilton took 25 points and Verstappen finished second from the back of the grid, being seventh when the rain started coming down - another huge result in the title race. 

I wrote about McLaren’s progress after their 1-2 in Monza. 

NEXT: Five what-ifs in the drivers’ championship fight.

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